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Fair Value Gap on ETH 12H

Fair Value Gap

Short
ETH / USD · 12-hour
formed 2 days ago

A bearish fair value gap on the 12-hour chart. Here is where it sits and how this pattern has behaved in the past.

EntryThe trigger printed near $2,458.
InvalidationThe idea is broken on a close past $2,521, which is where the pattern fails.
Room to targetThere is room toward $2,142, about 5.0R away.
Two exit rules
Hold for the target

Entry sits near $2,458, with invalidation at $2,521. This style holds the full position toward the room near $2,142. A close above $2,521 ends the idea.

Book early

Entry sits near $2,458, with invalidation at $2,521. This style books half near the first target around $2,395 and shifts the stop to the entry ($2,458), so the remainder carries no risk. The rest targets the room near $2,142.

Track recordwith 0.12% round-trip fees
Risk per trade
Hold for the target
+4%
average annual gain
Wins31% of trades
Avg time to profit~4.9 days
Worst drawdown19%
Book early
+4%
average annual gain
Wins52% of trades
Avg time to profit~3.6 days
Worst drawdown14%
42
times triggered since Feb 2025
+0.07R
avg edge · ≈ +$7 per $100 risked
~1.17R
typical dip before it works
What to expect: It usually plays out over about 5 days, and it often moves most of the way to your stop before it turns. That is past behavior, not a promise about this instance.
Advanced stats+
Direction split0 long / 42 short
Expectancy0.07R per trade
Median run / dip1.23R / -1.17R
Sample windowFeb 2025 to Aug 2026

Not financial advice, and never a buy or sell call. Past performance does not predict future results. See how these numbers are computed.

What formed

A Fair Value Gap formed on ETH 12H. Historically this pattern on ETH 12H resolved toward the first target in 4570% of 70 instances before touching invalidation, with an expectancy of -0.02R per instance. This is descriptive analysis of a chart structure, not personalized guidance.

A fair value gap, or imbalance, is a three-candle pattern where the middle candle moves so fast that the wicks of the first and third candle don't overlap, leaving a small untraded gap in price. Because that range was skipped, price often returns to rebalance it before continuing.

It appears during sharp, one-directional moves, often off news or a liquidity grab. The faster and larger the displacement, the bigger the gap. Gaps that sit alongside an order block or a key level tend to matter more than isolated ones.

Other fair value gap formations

Ask the Analyst about Fair Value Gap

FAQ

A fair value gap, or imbalance, is a three-candle pattern where the middle candle moves so fast that the wicks of the first and third candle don't overlap, leaving a small untraded gap in price. Because that range was skipped, price often returns to rebalance it before continuing.

Related

Detected by Botsfolio · Aug 29, 2026 · Methodology

Descriptive analysis, not financial advice. Past performance does not predict future results.