Track record
Fair Value Gap on BTC 12H: backtested track record
Every Fair Value Gap that formed on the Bitcoin (BTC) 12-hour chart since Feb 2025: 76 backtested trades, grade D, averaging -0.31R per trade after a 0.12% round-trip fee.
Fair Value Gap
BTC · 12-hour chart
Track record with 0.12% fees per trade
Risk / trade
Hold for the target
Holding the whole position to the target closed in profit less often, but the winners were larger.
Annual gain-29%
Wins21%
Avg time to profit~3.2 days
Max drawdown46%
Book early
Banking half near the first target and moving the stop to breakeven closed in profit more often, with smaller average winners.
Annual gain-19%
Wins45%
Avg time to profit~2.6 days
Max drawdown38%
Times it has formed76
Avg edge / trade-0.31R
Typical dip first~1.19R
It usually plays out over about 3 days, and it often moves most of the way to your stop before it turns. That is past behavior, not a promise about this instance.
Advanced stats
Direction split27 long / 49 short
Expectancy-0.31R per trade
Median run / dip0.99R / -1.19R
Sample windowFeb 2025 to Sep 2026
Not financial advice, and never a buy or sell call. Past performance does not predict future results.
Fair Value Gap on BTC, other timeframes
New to the pattern? How a Fair Value Gap works.
Reading these numbers: average result per trade and drawdown, explained.
Questions about the Fair Value Gap on BTC 12H
76 times since Feb 2025 in the backtest, on Coinbase candles for Bitcoin.
Hold for the target: 21% of trades closed in profit, typically in ~3.2 days. Book early: 45% of trades closed in profit, typically in ~2.6 days.
The typical trade dipped about 1.19R toward its stop before it worked out. It usually plays out over about 3 days, and it often moves most of the way to your stop before it turns. That is past behavior, not a promise about this instance.
No. These are past results of the pattern, measured with no look-ahead and net of fees. They describe how it has behaved, not what the next one will do.
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Related
Related concepts
- ConceptOrder BlockThe last opposing candle before a strong, imbalanced move, a zone price often reacts to on the return.
- ConceptLiquidity SweepA sharp push past an obvious high or low that grabs resting stops, then quickly reverses.
- ConceptBreak of StructureA decisive close beyond the most recent swing point in the trend direction that confirms continuation.