Track record
Order Block on BTC 1D: backtested track record
Every Order Block that formed on the Bitcoin (BTC) daily chart since Feb 2025: 21 backtested trades, grade D, averaging -0.39R per trade after a 0.12% round-trip fee.
Order Block
BTC · daily chart
Track record with 0.12% fees per trade
Risk / trade
Hold for the target
Holding the whole position to the target closed in profit less often, but the winners were larger.
Annual gain-10%
Wins19%
Avg time to profit~11.3 days
Max drawdown21%
Book early
Banking half near the first target and moving the stop to breakeven closed in profit more often, with smaller average winners.
Annual gain-7%
Wins42%
Avg time to profit~7.8 days
Max drawdown17%
Times it has formed21
Avg edge / trade-0.39R
Typical dip first~1.21R
It usually plays out over about 11 days, and it often moves most of the way to your stop before it turns. That is past behavior, not a promise about this instance.
Advanced stats
Direction split12 long / 9 short
Expectancy-0.39R per trade
Median run / dip0.50R / -1.21R
Sample windowFeb 2025 to Sep 2026
Not financial advice, and never a buy or sell call. Past performance does not predict future results.
Order Block on BTC, other timeframes
New to the pattern? How a Order Block works.
Reading these numbers: average result per trade and drawdown, explained.
Questions about the Order Block on BTC 1D
21 times since Feb 2025 in the backtest, on Coinbase candles for Bitcoin.
Hold for the target: 19% of trades closed in profit, typically in ~11.3 days. Book early: 42% of trades closed in profit, typically in ~7.8 days.
The typical trade dipped about 1.21R toward its stop before it worked out. It usually plays out over about 11 days, and it often moves most of the way to your stop before it turns. That is past behavior, not a promise about this instance.
No. These are past results of the pattern, measured with no look-ahead and net of fees. They describe how it has behaved, not what the next one will do.
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Related
Related concepts
- ConceptSmart Money ConceptsThe complete framework: order blocks, fair value gaps, liquidity sweeps, break of structure, change of character.
- ConceptICT TradingThe specific SMC methodology developed by Michael J. Huddleston, including killzones and Power of 3.
- ConceptBreak of StructureA decisive close beyond the most recent swing point in the trend direction that confirms continuation.
- ConceptChange of CharacterThe first structural break against the prevailing trend, signaling a potential reversal.