Track record
Break and Retest on BTC 12H: backtested track record
Every Break and Retest that formed on the Bitcoin (BTC) 12-hour chart since Feb 2025: 131 backtested trades, grade D, averaging -0.44R per trade after a 0.12% round-trip fee.
Break And Retest
BTC · 12-hour chart
Track record with 0.12% fees per trade
Risk / trade
Hold for the target
Holding the whole position to the target closed in profit less often, but the winners were larger.
Annual gain-70%
Wins19%
Avg time to profit~3.0 days
Max drawdown70%
Book early
Banking half near the first target and moving the stop to breakeven closed in profit more often, with smaller average winners.
Annual gain-49%
Wins43%
Avg time to profit~2.5 days
Max drawdown59%
Times it has formed131
Avg edge / trade-0.44R
Typical dip first~1.25R
It usually plays out over about 3 days, and it often moves most of the way to your stop before it turns. That is past behavior, not a promise about this instance.
Advanced stats
Direction split67 long / 64 short
Expectancy-0.44R per trade
Median run / dip0.85R / -1.25R
Sample windowFeb 2025 to Sep 2026
Not financial advice, and never a buy or sell call. Past performance does not predict future results.
Break and Retest on BTC, other timeframes
New to the pattern? How a Break and Retest works.
Reading these numbers: average result per trade and drawdown, explained.
Questions about the Break and Retest on BTC 12H
131 times since Feb 2025 in the backtest, on Coinbase candles for Bitcoin.
Hold for the target: 19% of trades closed in profit, typically in ~3.0 days. Book early: 43% of trades closed in profit, typically in ~2.5 days.
The typical trade dipped about 1.25R toward its stop before it worked out. It usually plays out over about 3 days, and it often moves most of the way to your stop before it turns. That is past behavior, not a promise about this instance.
No. These are past results of the pattern, measured with no look-ahead and net of fees. They describe how it has behaved, not what the next one will do.
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Related
Related concepts
- ConceptBreak of StructureA decisive close beyond the most recent swing point in the trend direction that confirms continuation.
- ConceptOrder BlockThe last opposing candle before a strong, imbalanced move, a zone price often reacts to on the return.
- ConceptFair Value GapA three-candle imbalance where price moved so fast it left an untraded gap it often returns to fill.