Track record
Break and Retest on BTC 1D: backtested track record
Every Break and Retest that formed on the Bitcoin (BTC) daily chart since Feb 2025: 61 backtested trades, grade D, averaging -0.32R per trade after a 0.12% round-trip fee.
Break And Retest
BTC · daily chart
Track record with 0.12% fees per trade
Risk / trade
Hold for the target
Holding the whole position to the target closed in profit less often, but the winners were larger.
Annual gain-24%
Wins20%
Avg time to profit~7.1 days
Max drawdown36%
Book early
Banking half near the first target and moving the stop to breakeven closed in profit more often, with smaller average winners.
Annual gain+3%
Wins57%
Avg time to profit~5.3 days
Max drawdown10%
Times it has formed61
Avg edge / trade-0.32R
Typical dip first~1.27R
It usually plays out over about 7 days, and it often moves most of the way to your stop before it turns. That is past behavior, not a promise about this instance.
Advanced stats
Direction split26 long / 35 short
Expectancy-0.32R per trade
Median run / dip1.52R / -1.27R
Sample windowFeb 2025 to Sep 2026
Not financial advice, and never a buy or sell call. Past performance does not predict future results.
Break and Retest on BTC, other timeframes
New to the pattern? How a Break and Retest works.
Reading these numbers: average result per trade and drawdown, explained.
Questions about the Break and Retest on BTC 1D
61 times since Feb 2025 in the backtest, on Coinbase candles for Bitcoin.
Hold for the target: 20% of trades closed in profit, typically in ~7.1 days. Book early: 57% of trades closed in profit, typically in ~5.3 days.
The typical trade dipped about 1.27R toward its stop before it worked out. It usually plays out over about 7 days, and it often moves most of the way to your stop before it turns. That is past behavior, not a promise about this instance.
No. These are past results of the pattern, measured with no look-ahead and net of fees. They describe how it has behaved, not what the next one will do.
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Related
Related concepts
- ConceptBreak of StructureA decisive close beyond the most recent swing point in the trend direction that confirms continuation.
- ConceptOrder BlockThe last opposing candle before a strong, imbalanced move, a zone price often reacts to on the return.
- ConceptFair Value GapA three-candle imbalance where price moved so fast it left an untraded gap it often returns to fill.