Track record
Momentum Divergence on BTC 4H: backtested track record
Every Momentum Divergence that formed on the Bitcoin (BTC) 4-hour chart since Feb 2025: 108 backtested trades, grade D, averaging -0.01R per trade after a 0.12% round-trip fee.
Momentum Divergence
BTC · 4-hour chart
Track record with 0.12% fees per trade
Risk / trade
Hold for the target
Holding the whole position to the target closed in profit less often, but the winners were larger.
Annual gain-1%
Wins37%
Avg time to profit~2.8 days
Max drawdown28%
Book early
Banking half near the first target and moving the stop to breakeven closed in profit more often, with smaller average winners.
Annual gain+10%
Wins58%
Avg time to profit~2.1 days
Max drawdown18%
Times it has formed108
Avg edge / trade-0.01R
Typical dip first~1.06R
It usually plays out over about 3 days, and it often moves most of the way to your stop before it turns. That is past behavior, not a promise about this instance.
Advanced stats
Direction split51 long / 57 short
Expectancy-0.01R per trade
Median run / dip1.17R / -1.06R
Sample windowFeb 2025 to Sep 2026
Not financial advice, and never a buy or sell call. Past performance does not predict future results.
Momentum Divergence on BTC, other timeframes
Momentum Divergence 1HMomentum Divergence 6HMomentum Divergence 8HMomentum Divergence 12HMomentum Divergence 1D
New to the pattern? How a Momentum Divergence works.
Reading these numbers: average result per trade and drawdown, explained.
Questions about the Momentum Divergence on BTC 4H
108 times since Feb 2025 in the backtest, on Coinbase candles for Bitcoin.
Hold for the target: 37% of trades closed in profit, typically in ~2.8 days. Book early: 58% of trades closed in profit, typically in ~2.1 days.
The typical trade dipped about 1.06R toward its stop before it worked out. It usually plays out over about 3 days, and it often moves most of the way to your stop before it turns. That is past behavior, not a promise about this instance.
No. These are past results of the pattern, measured with no look-ahead and net of fees. They describe how it has behaved, not what the next one will do.
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