Botsfolio AI vs Claude: A Live $50,000 Battle
Botsfolio AI against Anthropic's Claude Fable 5.1 and Claude Opus 5.5, next to simply holding. $50,000 each in bitcoin and ether, one decision at every daily close, on the same prices, rules and fees. Updated after every close.
The race so far
Through the Oct. 27 close. The dashed line is the starting $50,000.- Botsfolio AI: No trades.
- Claude Fable 5.1: Held 0% BTC, 0% ETH. “Staying fully in cash: BTC bounced inside the range but still closed below its 50-day average and under the 82k reclaim level, and ETH remains well below its own average despite a small bounce.”
- Claude Opus 5.5: Held 25% BTC, 10% ETH. “Holding the small 25% BTC / 10% ETH position because both coins bounced today off the support they have held since Oct 24, but ETH still lags.”
Every day so far
| Close | Botsfolio AI | Fable | Opus | Hold |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct. 9 | $49,988 | $49,974 | $49,974 | $49,965 |
| Oct. 10 | $50,088 | $50,178 | $50,186 | $50,263 |
| Oct. 11 | $50,265 | $50,563 | $50,578 | $50,801 |
| Oct. 12 | $49,733 | $49,516 | $49,506 | $49,311 |
| Oct. 13 | $50,043 | $49,928 | $50,138 | $50,240 |
| Oct. 14 | $49,630 | $49,458 | $49,327 | $49,000 |
| Oct. 15 | $49,626 | $49,095 | $49,230 | $49,380 |
| Oct. 16 | $49,519 | $48,885 | $48,999 | $48,992 |
| Oct. 17 | $49,462 | $48,789 | $48,904 | $48,752 |
| Oct. 18 | $49,543 | $48,940 | $49,099 | $49,021 |
| Oct. 19 | $49,520 | $48,899 | $49,046 | $48,945 |
| Oct. 20 | $49,656 | $49,162 | $49,468 | $49,696 |
| Oct. 21 | $49,848 | $49,417 | $49,832 | $50,278 |
| Oct. 22 | $49,339 | $48,532 | $48,436 | $48,592 |
| Oct. 23 | $49,320 | $48,484 | $48,391 | $48,507 |
| Oct. 24 | $49,181 | $48,309 | $47,777 | $48,122 |
| Oct. 25 | $49,101 | $48,309 | $47,613 | $47,618 |
| Oct. 26 | $49,091 | $48,309 | $47,593 | $47,540 |
| Oct. 27 | $49,174 | $48,309 | $47,764 | $48,047 |
Standings
Through the Oct. 27 close- 1Botsfolio AILeading
$50,000 with Botsfolio AI in a public paper portfolio, trading bitcoin and ether from the Oct. 9 close.
Worst drop 2.3% · vs holding +$1,127Worst drop2.3%vs holding+$1,127$49,174-1.65% - 2Claude Fable 5.1
Anthropic's most capable model, at high effort. $50,000 from the Oct. 9 close. API bill so far: $5.76.
Worst drop 4.5% · vs holding +$262Worst drop4.5%vs holding+$262$48,309-3.38% - 3Holding
$25,000 in bitcoin and $25,000 in ether, bought at the Oct. 9 close and never sold.
Worst drop 6.4%Worst drop6.4%vs holding-$48,047-3.91% - 4Claude Opus 5.5
Anthropic's main model, at high effort. $50,000 from the Oct. 9 close. API bill so far: $2.15.
Worst drop 5.9% · vs holding -$283Worst drop5.9%vs holding-$283$47,764-4.47%
The same rules for all three
- Same start. $50,000 each from the Oct. 9, 2026 daily close.
- Same coins. Bitcoin and ether, spot only, no leverage. Each decides how much of each coin to hold, and the rest stays in cash.
- One decision a day. At every daily close (00:00 UTC), filled at the Coinbase close with a 0.06% fee and 0.01% slippage.
- Optional stops. A stop-loss order lasts one day and is checked on 15-minute prices.
- The models. Each sees 365 days of daily prices, its portfolio and its last 10 notes, with the same instructions and answer format. No news and no tools.
- Botsfolio AI. A public paper portfolio traded live.
Holding is the benchmark: half of each coin, bought at the first close and left alone.
More live battles
Educational analysis, not financial advice. Every player trades paper money on live prices. Claude's calls for Oct. 9 to 27 were made on Oct. 28, one day at a time with only the prices up to each day. Trading crypto can lose money. Past performance does not predict future results.