How Much Can an AI Trading Bot Make? 94 Start Dates of Data
There is no honest "per day" number, and anyone who quotes one is selling something. Tested from every monthly start since January 2018, Botsfolio's BTC & ETH Cycle Trader returned a median of about 33% a year, against about 24% for holding the same coins, with a typical biggest drop of about 37% against holding's 75%. The worst start still finished up about 14%; the best grew more than 40 times. Lower-risk portfolios on the same coins made less, 10% to 18% a year, with much smaller drops. In 2026 so far, the Cycle Trader is up 24.2% while holding is down 13.8% (October 14). These are backtests and paper results, not promises.
Search for "how much can a trading bot make" and you'll find videos promising $2,000 a day and articles quoting 3% to 15% a month with no source. Those numbers are the reason so many people lose money on bots. Here is what the data looks like when you test one AI portfolio from 94 different starting points, with every drop left in.
Why "per day" is the wrong question
Trading returns don't arrive in daily installments. Some months lose money, many do little, and a few do most of the work. A product that promises a steady daily or weekly amount is describing something no market produces. The US CFTC lists guaranteed or very high returns as the first red flag of an AI trading scam.
The useful questions are different: what does it make in a typical year, how bad is a bad start, how far does it fall along the way, and does it beat simply holding?
The range, not the headline
One start date can be lucky. So the same AI portfolio was tested from every monthly start since January 2018, each held to October 2026, through the 2018 and 2022 crashes and the recoveries after:
BTC & ETH Cycle Trader from 94 different start dates: ahead of holding BTC and ETH from 94 of them.
| Across every start date | Botsfolio AI | Holding |
|---|---|---|
| Median yearly return | +33.3% | +23.7% |
| Worst start, total to date | +14.0% | -37.8% |
| Best start, total to date | +4103.0% | +2228.6% |
| Typical biggest drop | 37.5% | 75.5% |
| Worst biggest drop | 61.4% | 88.0% |
| Deepest fall below the money put in | 59.0% | 82.7% |
| Longest time below the money put in | 16 months | 33 months |
Three things stand out:
- The median beats holding, and so does the worst case. Holding BTC and ETH from its worst start lost money; the AI's worst start still made money.
- The drops are real. A typical biggest drop near 37% means most people who used it would have watched it fall by about a third at some point.
- The best case is a timing story. Starting near the bottom of a crash produces enormous totals for holding and for the AI. Nobody can count on that start.
More risk, more return, bigger drops
Botsfolio AI runs three portfolios on the same two coins with different amounts of risk. Tested the same way, from 94 start dates since 2018:
| BTC and ETH | Median yearly return | Typical biggest drop |
|---|---|---|
| Cycle Trader | 33.6% | 37.5% |
| Trend Rider | 18.4% | 21.9% |
| Steady Trader | 10.1% | 10.8% |
| Holding BTC and ETH | 24.1% | 75.5% |
Medians from every monthly start since January 2018, each held to October 8, 2026, with a 0.10% fee on every trade. Backtest.
The pattern is the one you'd expect from any honest record: the more a portfolio can make, the further it can fall. Holding made more than two of the three AI portfolios, but with a typical fall of three quarters of the money. Which one suits you depends on the drop you can sit through, not on the top number. Our guide to drawdown explains why that matters so much.
What 2026 looks like so far
Backtests show the range. A forward record on live prices shows what is happening now:
All 7 portfolios are ahead of holding the same coins, and every one fell less than holding did at its worst.
| Portfolio | Return | Biggest drop |
|---|---|---|
| BTC & ETH Cycle Trader BTC · ETH | +24.2% hold -13.8% | 8.7% hold 46.5% |
| BTC & ETH Trend Rider BTC · ETH | +3.9% hold -13.8% | 6.0% hold 46.5% |
| BTC & ETH Steady Trader BTC · ETH | +2.6% hold -13.8% | 3.2% hold 46.5% |
| Bitcoin Cycle Trader BTC | +3.2% hold -8.2% | 4.8% hold 39.6% |
| Crypto Cycle Trader BTC · ETH · ZEC · XRP · SOL | +27.9% hold +8.7% | 12.4% hold 45.5% |
| Altcoin Trend Rider ZEC · XRP · SOL · XLM · NEAR | +31.7% hold +12.9% | 13.4% hold 50.2% |
| Memecoin Trend Rider DOGE · FARTCOIN · PENGU · PEPE · BONK | -6.3% hold -36.6% | 10.5% hold 63.2% |
2026 has been a falling year for both coins, which is where the AI portfolios held up best against holding. In a fast rally, holding usually climbs faster. The month-by-month detail is in buy and hold vs an AI-managed crypto portfolio.
What changes the number
- When you start. The gap between the best and worst start is enormous, for holding and for the AI.
- Your exchange's fees. The same portfolio made 33.6% a year at a 0.10% fee and 17.1% at 0.90%. We tested it in exchange fees can turn a winning AI into a losing one.
- The coins you pick. Smaller coins swing more both ways.
- Whether you stay in. The yearly figure only happens if you are still invested after the worst drop.
Yearly figures are medians across 94 start dates, each held to October 2026, with a 0.10% fee on every trade. They are backtests on past prices. The 2026 table is a paper trading record on live prices. Neither predicts future results.
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- BTC & ETH Cycle Trader+24.2% vs -13.8% buy & hold in 2026 · biggest drop 8.7% vs 46.5%
- BTC & ETH Trend Rider+3.9% vs -13.8% buy & hold in 2026 · biggest drop 6.0% vs 46.5%
- BTC & ETH Steady Trader+2.6% vs -13.8% buy & hold in 2026 · biggest drop 3.2% vs 46.5%
- Bitcoin Cycle Trader+3.2% vs -8.2% buy & hold in 2026 · biggest drop 4.8% vs 39.6%
- Crypto Cycle Trader+27.9% vs +8.7% buy & hold in 2026 · biggest drop 12.4% vs 45.5%
- Altcoin Trend Rider+31.7% vs +12.9% buy & hold in 2026 · biggest drop 13.4% vs 50.2%
- Memecoin Trend Rider-6.3% vs -36.6% buy & hold in 2026 · biggest drop 10.5% vs 63.2%
How to read these numbers: the buy and hold comparison, biggest drop, and how the portfolios are tested.
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Paper trading on real prices. Not investment advice.
Educational analysis, not financial advice. Backtests are tests on past prices and paper trading results are simulated. Trading crypto can lose money. Past performance does not predict future results.